In the Bavarian home of the Federal Minister for transport, we would refer to the result of the opinion, as a scientific clip around the ears. The renowned traffic expert Ralf Ratzenberger predicts that the Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) planned foreigner toll from the first year of a “shortfall” has, in other words, it costs the state money, without additional financial resources.
Ratzenberger calculated in his report commissioned by the ADAC in order that the current operation is a loss-making business for the state: in 2019, the Minus, therefore, amounts to 71 million Euro and 2023, even with 175 million euros. The introduction cost of the project – the Ministry of transport has estimated that once on 380 million euros will be allocated to ten years, increasing the deficit by 2023, to 213 million Euro. In a corresponding assignment to five years, there are even 251 million euros.
it can take A toll, the transport Minister praises as a “system change”, but costs a quarter of a billion Minus per year – how can it be?
Expensive compromise with Brussels
to do This, you must know that Ratzenberger was already skeptical, as Dobrindt introduced more than two years ago, its original toll plans. The expert expects, once again, with a much smaller amount, has a lot to do with that compromise, the Dobrindt in Brussels in December achieved: the EU-Commission does not consider his plans further than European law, had to provide the Minister of transport commitments, particularly low-pollutant vehicles of the so-called Euro 6-class on motor Vehicle tax to be better than originally planned. You will in the future be relieved of road tax more than you will be charged for the toll, the numbers below the line, so less than it is today.
Because almost only Euro 6 vehicles are allowed, increases with the time the number of the profiteers. Ratzenberger calculated so that the effect is to reduce revenue in 2019 by EUR 137 million, and 2023 is already at 230 million euros.
Dobrindt does not, however, assume that the discharge power so strongly felt and also the Federal Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU), for the motor Vehicle tax responsibility, at least officially, in his view. However, the Minister did not put the Details of your calculations so far.
That Dobrindt of the annual net proceeds revenue in the amount of approximately 520 million euros, Ratzenberger but already in 2019, with a loss of Euro 71 million attributed to another reason: The traffic scientist holds Dobrindts parameters for the “less realistic”, so that “the magnitude of the estimate is classified as significantly more plausible”.
Significantly lower total revenue
Ratzenberger assumes that each year only about ten million of vignettes for foreign drivers to be sold and not those almost 30 million, the data showed. That’s why he only comes on gross revenue earned by foreign Cars of 276 million euros and not to 834 million euros as the Minister. Although both believe in a similar high volume of traffic by non-residents, Ratzenberger is expected, however, that it is distributed to fewer cars: if you drive once more to Germany, more often.
The researchers justified this assumption, among other things, to the fact that many cruises one-day business and private trips in the so-called small border traffic, so that “per passenger Car, not a few trips per year, but a significantly higher number carried out”. Dobrindt, however, presented on Thursday a private opinion, which agreed with him, his calculations are plausible, and could be even higher.
Who is right, you know – so unsatisfactory, that is – only if the toll is actually “in focus”, as Dobrindt announced the launch of its favorite project.
Whether it is this, however, comes the Bundestag, the foreigners toll so actually before the next Federal election a second Time, passed, seems, after the presentation of the current opinion, at least questionable.
Even if the truth lies in the middle between the predictions of Ratzenberger and Dobrindt, would lead the project to a net income of around EUR 200 million per year. Taking into account the implementation costs, the total would be correspondingly lower. For this comparatively modest output, the bureaucratic burden would be extremely high.
to make matters worse for Dobrindt, the SPD is currently in the Martin-Schulz-to-noise and there are in the parliamentary group, only a very limited willingness Dobrindts controversial prestige project again to wave through. Clearly the relevant group Vice Sören Bartol is expressed. “I hope that the Federal Minister of Finance, the CSU has not charged a toll,” says he, and pushes a warning afterwards: “as Long as Mr Schäuble says that the toll is not a minus business, will not raise the SPD for the Hand.”