The Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-vote does not weaken the British economy as strong as since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in early 2009. Business is currently due to the great uncertainty surprisingly mau how the institute IHS Markit announced on Friday to its survey of around 1,000 companies. “In July, the economy has deteriorated dramatically,” said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson and expected in summer even a contraction of the economy on the island. The service look so skeptical forward as the last seven and a half years no longer – then put the entire global economy after the bankruptcy of US investment bank Lehman Brothers in a deep recession
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the British have the end of June decided in a referendum to leave the European Union (EU). Many economists believe that the UK therefore slips into a cyclical trough. The now retired Prime Minister David Cameron had warned shortly before the referendum before a Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union and its impact on the economy: “This is the option to self-destruction.” Cameron then government had emphasized due to the EU withdrawal could be eliminated at least half a million jobs and shrinking real wages within two years by almost three percent.
the new government in London must now parting from the EU to negotiate with Prime Minister Theresa May, but first see the central bank (BoE) on train to the economic hinwegzuhelfen over the shock. Experts firmly anticipate that the BoE early August its key interest rate from the current 0.5 percent – already a record low -. Reduces and its bond-buying program expands
With a view to Markit data said analyst James Smith of the bank ING: “This confirms our view that the Bank of England will provide additional momentum.” the numbers put sterling under pressure. It lost within minutes about one US cent to $ 1.3166. After the referendum, the pound had fallen to the level of the mid-1980s.
Companies postpone investments
The joint purchasing managers index for industry and service slipped in July to 47, 7 points from, to 52.4 points in the previous month. This is the weakest level since April 2009. Thus, the barometer fell below the threshold of 50 points, is displayed above the growth. It was the biggest drop since the survey beginning 20 years ago. The new Treasury Philip Hammond said Britain would continue to support its economy at the present stage. The index giving represents only a snapshot.
The cooling show in order cancellations, less new business and shifted or completed projects, said Markit chief economist Williamson. “Mostly this was due to the one way or another with the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union.” At present, the survey signaled a contraction of the economy by 0.4 percent in the third quarter. However, one must wait and see how the companies digested the shock in August. At the beginning of the British economy had grown by 0.4 percent. Data for the second quarter are expected next week. Experts expect here with an increase in GDP of 0.5 percent.
German Economy Going Strong
In the medium term, a slowdown in the UK also burden the euro zone. So economists lowered because of the Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-vote its growth forecast for the 19 euro countries in the next year to 1.4 from 1.6 per cent, as is evident from a survey among observers of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. Although the purchasing managers index from Markit for the currency area, however signaled the weakest growth since a half years. The barometer fell only slightly by 0.2 to 52.9 points. “We do not see this as a first indication of the feared by many Proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union-shock,” said Commerbank expert Ralph Solveen. The index for Germany climbed by as much as 0.9 points on the year high of 55.3 meters.
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