Saturday, January 31, 2015

Two scenarios after the Troika expulsion of Greece – FAZ – Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

Two scenarios after the Troika expulsion of Greece – FAZ – Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung



          What the Greeks really want?


The new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his ministers know well how to do (bad) talked about in other countries: Only Tsipras stops a number of international donors agreed privatizations. Then he announced that he intends to many laid-off state employees again. A little later, Athens outraged by new EU sanctions against Russia. Greek Finance Minister Giani Varoufakis explains in a joint press conference with euro group chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem suddenly cooperation with the troika inspectors closed. And the Greek Defence Minister Panos Kammenos finally flew shortly after taking office, some island off the coast of Turkey and triggers a fighter use of both countries from.


Alexander Armbruster Author: Alexander Armbruster, born in 1982, editor in business.

What is this ?, people in other euro countries that have kept Greece with a lot of money from bankruptcy wonder – and probably many Greeks who have not made at SYRIZA or her right-wing populist coalition partners Anel last Sunday of her back – at least 60 percent, so the majority of voters. Breaking the Greeks now their ties to Europe from and contact the Kremlin? Greece rises out of the euro and sets the debt service? Two scenarios are possible:


. 1 The major escalation

The new Greek government is on a collision course. She announced – with reference to its manifesto – One further agreed with international donors simple reforms on. It requires a haircut, rejecting further financial and returns the austerity measures in recent years back. All this she does on their own, without consulting the other euro countries.


In a few weeks she realizes that everything does not work at the same time, because it simply has no money for all of their campaign promises. The euro countries on the other hand, maintain that there is no haircut and no new money without conditions. Then Greece would have no choice but to choose the state bankruptcy to escape from the euro and to introduce a new currency. The euro countries remain on their loan originators, or they get back drachmas.


If one assumes a certain rationality on both sides and the statements of all the pages are meant seriously, then it comes as no: Merkel wants Greece hold in the monetary union and the Tsipras government does not want to come out also – the majority of Greeks anyway not.



. 2 The big show

Alexis Tsipras and his government of course know that they can not make big jumps financial: the country is going sooner rather than later the money out if it can not agree with the donors. In addition, wiggle the Greek banks, now many people have money deducted. Tsipras can not make a complete over but a few days after his election, unless he wants to be hunted by his own voters go to hell. So he rumbles now once the louder in order to demonstrate at least some political successes can.


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Two scenarios after the Troika expulsion of Greece

After the Troika sacking

The big fight – or the big show

From Alexander Armbruster

Greece announces the Troika, flirting with Russia and provoked Turkey. What did before the new government in Athens? Hellas turns actually from Europe and the Euro? Here are two scenarios.

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