Before the election in Greece, the voltage increases. Everything points to a SYRIZA victory point
Before the election in Greece, the voltage increases. Everything points to a SYRIZA victory out
From Filippos Sacharis
For his followers he is only “O Alexis “(The Alexis). They celebrate him, cheer him, for he is well on the way Greek politics – and maybe even the whole of Europe – to unhinge. The latest polls say Alexis Tsipras and his radical leftist SYRIZA a brilliant victory in the election on Sunday in Greece advance. Meanwhile, the party takes six percentage points ahead of the conservative New Democracy party of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras. And so should the next Greek Prime Minister Tsipras hot.
What is taking place in Greece, is now riveted on the rest of Europe to anxious. The result is considered to be the trend for the continuation of the austerity measures in the high-debt crisis country. In particular, the euro-countries fear the increasingly apparent change of government in Athens. Euro Group boss Jeroen Dijsselbloem threatened on Friday even with one end of financial support, the future leaders in Greece should not adhere to the agreements with donors.
For SYRIZA chief Tsipras wants in the case of an election victory negotiate a debt restructuring with international donors. The Greek public debt is 320 billion euros, which is nearly 180 percent of gross domestic product. The majority of loans originated by euro member states. The euro zone finance ministers want to debate after the parliamentary election on the way forward of the crisis country. Who Greece on Monday – the day after the election – will defend the Euro Group, is still unclear
Especially in Berlin , one of the largest creditors of Greece, there is so shortly before the election surprisingly quiet. Length of the telegenic 40-year-old Tsipras was demonized by the reform advocates as specter. But after a the Chancellor’s Office ascribed message, the euro zone could cope with the withdrawal of Greece meanwhile, had had repercussions at home and abroad, they gave themselves restrained in Berlin. No public intervention in the Greek campaign, seemed from then on the currency.
Is Tsipras, who has enjoyed a rapid political career in the radical left in Greece, suddenly become socially acceptable? Or you arrange themselves in European capitals already with the inevitable? He was eloquent, clear, but also polite and pleasant to deal with, German government officials who spoke to him describe it. His charisma and his belligerence there are also appeal to many Greeks
In Berlin acknowledges this quite -. The government officials who have already spoken to him but say at the same time, Tsipras charm but would not help him in the matter. The government in Berlin, the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB) – all important for the country partners reject a haircut. A departure from the path of reform comes for them out of the question.
Part of the serenity of the creditor explained by the fact that the political situation in Athens and the factor Time seems to play into the hands of them. So Tsipras would first have to be Prime Minister, what is certain in any way. The starting point: In the parliament in Athens are to be awarded 300 seats. An important feature in the electoral law is that the strongest party gets a bonus of 50 seats to their regularly-won mandates. This is to ensure stability. With 36 percent of the vote, which are the SYRIZA predicted in an election poll, a one-party government could work, most other surveys they look more at 32 to 33 percent.
That SYRIZA – with bonus – depends on the absolute majority of 151 seats, is therefore not excluded, but not guaranteed. In the latter case, they would need a coalition partner. According to the survey, eight of the 22 parties in the race a chance to skip the three-percent threshold. The radical communists (KKR) and the neo-fascists ruled out as a partner. With the current coalition partners, the conservative ND and the Socialist Pasok, an alliance should also be difficult to forge, but they are for the fighting of SYRIZA reform. However, the Pasok includes cooperation does not entirely as her chief Evangelos Venizelos said in a recent interview. But in the cooperation with the creditors he will not shake
Finally, there is the new center-left party The River (“The River”). – with the crucial flaw, however, that The River enters the course of reform and against a radical haircut.
If Tsipras So actually be head of government, then presumably only on the basis of compromises. And even if it does not clog the coalition partners, he will get quite safe dealing with international creditors. And soon, because time is running out clearly against him. Only if the current second utility of euro partners and the IMF is completed properly until February 28, Greece gets another, much-needed money. A tranche of 7.2 billion euros is still being held back until clear, with whom it will have to do in the future on the Greek side international donors. And it must repay up to 4.3 billion euros in the first quarter Loans
So there are two possible ways. The new Greek government complies with the agreed duties and obligations – or the creditors be flexible and extend the deadlines. If both, so perhaps the money supply would turned down. The victims were the Greeks -. Which Tsipras has promised better times in the campaign