Date: 01/24/2015 05:28 clock
The leading in the polls Syriza wants to terminate the agreements with the international lenders, make the austerity canceled and no longer service the debt. How should one deal with Greece? Throw out of the euro? The official answer is legally impossible and politically desired by anyone. In practice, it would be enough if the ECB was turning off the tap.
At the beginning it was from Berlin one of these unconfirmed reports from well-informed circles The federal government could imagine a Greek exit from the monetary union. The risks to the euro zone are now under control. The denial came promptly, but everyone saw in Brussels as a warning shot across the bow of a possible left-wing government in Athens
The European Commission also sought , the debate immediately to pull the rug: Article 140, paragraph 3 of the Treaty on European Union says that membership in the euro zone is irrevocable, said Commission spokesman Margaritas Schinas – which is not quite true, because the said paragraph provides only that the exchange rate for a new euro member is irrevocably fixed.
The truth is Only from the EU, then from the euro
that a departure from the Monetary Union is not regulated. Neither by sacking still a voluntary withdrawal: “So there is no euro-exit clause”, confirms the Brussels Polititologe Janis Emmanouilidis the legal gray zone
It would be conceivable that only a detour.. The country concerned shall withdraw from the European Union, for this is again – only since 2009 – regulated. With EU membership will automatically terminate the membership of the monetary union. And could the land – request reconsideration membership in the EU
This is so think outside the box that Emmanouilidis this construct denies the practicality – so to speak in the same breath: “. I see it as so complex that one could consider the legal form of a construct, but it would be difficult to implement. “
Greece would even come out
What seems certain is that a country can not be thrown against his will from the monetary union. And Greece will not get out of the euro, three-quarters of the population do not want it and SYRIZA not want it too, so Emmanouilidis “. I also see on the part of the partner that many do not want”
In any case, not now – but how to do it in Greece after the elections, currently can not be predicted with certainty. A confrontational escalation between Athens and its creditors, at least not excluded. And then the question of the further fate of Greece in the euro zone could make it, says the Brussels economist Guntram Wolff: “Something is then ultimately decided not legally, but politically and mechanism of the European Central Bank.”
The ECB has the power …
Because that keeps the flow of money in the debt-ridden Greece upright in which it supplies the euro with local banks in exchange Greek bonds must deposit banks as collateral in Frankfurt. With the ECB as currently turning a blind both eyes and dubious collateral accepted, Wolff: “The ECB would have good reason to say at a unilaterally declared haircut for Greece that Greek banks are not credible business partner more and thus no longer creditworthy for the ECB liquidity. As soon as one was turning off the tap of ECB liquidity, the country is de facto outside the euro. “
Because the country then simply no longer comes to new euro, in a situation where people will storm the banks to save what can be saved. The return to the drachma is then inevitable.
… and uses them
And that the central bank is willing their thumbscrews also use, which has already been proven. The Green MEP Sven Giegold lists: “We know from the past that the ECB against Ireland, but also against Spain and Italy has made to the details pads on national politics and has threatened, special financing for banks of countries dependent on making, which will be implemented this policy. “
What Giegold is totally unacceptable. Also, the sympathizing with SYRIZA MEPs of the Left, Fabio de Masi, is certain: “They want to set the right course under pressure because we make no illusions.” That sounds like a war of nerves – but the central bankers sit well on the longer lever