Thursday, 09 October 2014
The series of bad news from the German economy continues unabated: By industry orders and production is no longer broke in August and exports as strong as one in five and a half years. It was only last month there had been a record.
Germany’s exports have plummeted in August. Compared to July, exports Calendar and seasonally adjusted decreased by 5.8 percent, the Federal Statistics Office announced. This was the highest monthly decline since January 2009 – so for more than five and a half years. Economists had only expected a decline of 4.0 percent, after it had been still an increase of 4.8 percent in July.
For the DIHK the economic recovery in Germany is over. “We are in no recovery anymore,” said the head of the German Foreign Trade Chamber of Commerce (DIHK), Volker Treier, in “Morning Magazine”. He referred to the redeemed growth forecasts of the leading research institutes. After the contraction of the German economy in the second quarter interpret for the third quarter of stagnation “or even a negative sign” to.
Imports fall as well
The statistics agency pointed as a reason for the decline in exports in August to the late position of the summer holiday in many states. Many manufacturers produce in the main holiday season less and send fewer goods. Compared to August 2013, exports fell by 1.0 percent, according to statistics
Imports also fell in August. Compared to the previous month, it was a decline of 1.3 percent, as the Statistics Office reported. Compared with August 2013, imports declined by 2.4 percent
In July, German exports had cracked the first time the 100-billion-euro mark. Companies exported goods worth 101 billion euros off. In August this value is reached only 84.1 billion euros. Calendar and seasonally adjusted value of exports fell from 98.3 billion euros in July to 92.6 billion euros in August.More on the topic
The surplus in the trade balance – the difference between exports and imports – fell to 17.5 billion euros
experts. Holiday not wear the only reason
Thomas Amendment of HSBC Trinkaus pointed out that the late start of the holidays, the result of course distorting. “Nevertheless, this is a significant decline. Partial sanctions against Russia are responsible.” Nevertheless, the foreign trade should support the gross domestic product in the third quarter.
For BayernLB expert Stefan Kipar explain not only the holiday the decline. In addition, he was clearly pessimistic.. “For the winter season likely on foreign trade barely positive growth impetus reason is mainly the Ukraine crisis, should the uncertainty related but lay again, the weaker euro should help export to the jumps. “